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Cuba's Economy Contracted 5% in 2025: Study Reveals Crisis

Study confirms Cuba GDP decline, 1.5 million emigration, rising infant mortality. Critical juncture.

Aroma de Cuba · · 2 min read
Illustration of Cuban economic crisis with empty shelves and devalued Cuban peso

The Center for Studies of the Cuban Economy (CEEC), an official government institution, has published a devastating report: Cuba’s GDP contracted by approximately 5% in 2025, accumulating a decline of more than 15% since 2020.

The numbers the government didn’t want to publish

Although President Miguel Díaz-Canel had admitted a 4% reduction in the first three quarters, the CEEC study reveals a harsher reality:

  • Electricity generation: fell 13.7% year-over-year
  • Emigration: Cuba has lost 1.5 million people in five years
  • Infant mortality: rose to 9.8 per thousand (from approximately 5 per thousand in 2020)
  • Official inflation: 14.07% annually, but independent estimates place the increase in basic goods at 70%

“An exhausted economic model”

The document doesn’t mince words. It describes Cuba’s economy as trapped in “an exhausted economic model without effective mechanisms,” pointing to the “absence of substantial structural and macroeconomic reforms.”

“Cuba is going through what could be described as a ‘critical juncture’ defined as a situation of intersection and overlap of several crises: social unrest, questioning of established institutions, breakdown of ‘normality’…”

— CEEC Report, second half of 2025

The energy crisis as the axis of collapse

The CEEC describes the state of the National Electric System as “critical,” noting the aging of thermoelectric plants, many built in the 1960s and 70s with Soviet technology.

This energy crisis acted as a “drag axis on the rest of the sectors,” paralyzing industries, affecting hospitals, and darkening homes with blackouts that have become daily occurrences.

2026: A year of total uncertainty

The study, completed before the current U.S. oil blockade, already described the official growth forecast of 1% for 2026 as “optimistic.”

With the cutoff of supplies from Mexico and Venezuela, and emergency measures that include closed universities and a four-day work week, the outlook for 2026 is now even grimmer than the CEEC anticipated.

Sources:

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did Cuba's economy shrink in 2025?
According to the Center for Studies of the Cuban Economy (CEEC), Cuba's GDP contracted by approximately 5% in 2025, accumulating a decline of more than 15% since 2020.
How many Cubans have emigrated recently?
The CEEC study documents massive emigration of approximately 1.5 million Cubans over the last five years, drastically reducing the country's workforce.
What is the real inflation rate in Cuba?
While official figures are lower, the CEEC estimates that real inflation in Cuba is around 70%, severely affecting the population's purchasing power.
Has infant mortality increased in Cuba?
Yes. The infant mortality rate rose to 9.8 per thousand live births, the highest level in decades and a concerning indicator of the deterioration of Cuba's healthcare system.
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