Rubio Holds Secret Talks with Raúl Castro's Grandson on Cuba's Future

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is holding secret conversations with the grandson of former Cuban president Raúl Castro, in a diplomatic twist that could have direct consequences for the more than 500,000 Cubans facing immigration uncertainty on US soil.

Axios Reveals the Secret Channel

According to an exclusive Axios report published Wednesday, February 18, Rubio has established a direct communication channel with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, the 41-year-old grandson of the former Cuban president, bypassing official Havana government channels.

The conversations, described as “surprisingly friendly” by sources close to the matter, reflect the Trump administration’s view that Raúl Castro, 94, remains the real decision-maker on the island despite no longer holding the presidency.

“I wouldn’t call them ‘negotiations’ but rather ‘discussions’ about the future,” a senior administration official told Axios.

Why Castro’s Grandson?

Rubio’s team sees Rodríguez Castro as a representative of a younger generation of influential Cubans with a business-oriented mindset, for whom—in the American view—“revolutionary communism has failed.” The young Castro served as his grandfather’s bodyguard and has allies running GAESA, Cuba’s massive military-business conglomerate.

“He is the apple of his grandfather’s eye,” a source told Axios, adding that he is “the most important figure on the island with whom to cultivate the relationship.”

Washington’s Position: “The Regime Has to Go”

A senior official was direct about the American stance:

“Our position—the position of the US government—is that the regime has to go. But what exactly that will look like depends on President Trump and he hasn’t decided yet.”

These statements follow Trump’s words Monday aboard Air Force One: “We’re talking to Cuba right now. Marco Rubio is talking to Cuba right now, and they should absolutely make a deal, because it’s really a humanitarian threat.”

Cuba has denied that such conversations are taking place.

Implications for Cuban Migration

These negotiations come at a critical moment for the Cuban diaspora:

• The US oil blockade has caused massive blackouts and extreme shortages on the island, according to CNN reports
• Nicaragua closed its migration route for Cubans in February 2026, eliminating a pathway used by over 400,000 people between 2021 and 2024
• Over 500,000 Cubans with I-220A documents face deportation risk in the US, as reported by El País
• The Coast Guard has diverted over 750 flights for deportation operations

Cuban historian Rafael Rojas, a researcher at El Colegio de México, warned that given the oil siege reinforced by Trump’s January 29 executive order, “migratory pressure toward a mass exodus, or a social explosion, are within the realm of reasonable expectations of what could happen in the coming weeks and months.”

Deal or Pressure?

The big question is whether these talks will lead to real relief or are simply part of a maximum pressure strategy. A deal could include partial lifting of the oil blockade in exchange for political reforms, but it could also facilitate deportation flights if Cuba agrees to receive its nationals.

For Cubans stranded in Mexico, those facing deportation, and those fighting to regularize their status, the outcome of these “discussions about the future” could define their fate.

With reporting from Axios, OnCubaNews, El País, and Havana Times.