Cuba at the UN: 'We are prepared for a total blockade'

Cuba’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Ernesto Soberón Guzmán, stated this Wednesday that the island is prepared to face an eventual “total blockade” by the United States and that in the Cuban people’s mentality “the word surrender does not exist”.

The statement, made from the Cuban mission headquarters in New York in statements to EFE agency, comes at a critical moment for the island, after the suspension of oil shipments from Venezuela and the Trump administration’s threats to sanction any country that supplies crude oil to Cuba.

”We have plans and resources”

Soberón maintained that, if Washington were to apply a complete blockade, the country has plans and resources to confront it.

“Our priority is to protect the population and guarantee essential services.”

The diplomat assured that the current energy pressure is part of a strategy aimed at weakening the island and generating social discontent, but that Cuba has faced similar scenarios in the past —such as the so-called “special period” of the 1990s— and currently has greater capacities to resist.

Soberón mentioned the existence of a plan for an “option zero” scenario, which would imply a total blockade, although he expressed that they hope not to have to reach that point.

The impact is already visible

Despite the rhetoric of resistance, the Cuban ambassador acknowledged that the impact of sanctions is already reflected in multiple areas:

• Reorganization of international airline schedules serving Cuba
• Decrease in tourism revenue (main source of foreign currency)
• Logistical complications affecting food transport
• Limitations on internal mobility due to fuel shortage

He also admitted that sanctions have a “cumulative” effect after more than six decades of U.S. embargo and that the lack of fuel aggravates the situation.

An economy in crisis

The Cuban economy is going through its worst crisis in decades. According to data cited by EFE:

• 15% GDP contraction in the last five years
• More than 20% of the population has emigrated in the same period
• 2026 fiscal deficit: 74,500 million Cuban pesos (~$3.1 billion USD)

The ambassador acknowledged that international pressure has intensified resource scarcity, especially after the hardening of U.S. policy under Trump’s second administration.

Energy strategy: renewables and heavy crude

In the energy sector, Soberón highlighted efforts to boost renewable sources and improve heavy crude refining for electricity generation.

However, these plans require investment and time —scarce resources when blackouts reach up to 20 hours daily in some areas of the country.

The Cuban government recently announced tax exemptions of up to 8 years for private investors in renewable energy, a measure that reflects the regime’s desperation to solve the electrical crisis.

Willingness to dialogue (with conditions)

Regarding the possibility of talks with the United States, Soberón reiterated that Cuba is willing to dialogue under conditions of “mutual respect, equality, and non-interference”.

“The willingness to dialogue has been a constant in the island’s foreign policy.”

However, the Cuban government categorically denied having direct contacts with Marco Rubio, U.S. Secretary of State, nor with “Raúl Castro’s grandson” (referring to denials about alleged secret negotiations).

The context: Trump’s maximum pressure

Soberón’s statement comes in the context of a “maximum pressure” strategy by the Trump administration on Cuba:

• Oil blockade: Threats of tariffs on countries supplying fuel
• Freezing of humanitarian parole programs (CHNV)
• Increased deportations of Cubans from the U.S.
• Pressure on Mexico to reduce aid to the island

The White House has publicly stated that “the regime is falling” and that Washington expects a change of government in Cuba before the end of the year.

The precedent: The Special Period

When Soberón mentions that Cuba has faced similar scenarios, he refers to the Special Period (1991-2000), after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

At that time, Cuba lost 80% of its foreign trade overnight. The result:

• GDP fell 35% in three years
• Severe rationing of food and fuel
• Blackouts of up to 16 hours daily
• Mass emigration (rafters)

The island survived through:

• Urban agriculture (organopónicos)
• Limited opening to tourism
• Diaspora remittances
• Help from Venezuela (since 1999)

Now, without Venezuelan subsidy, conditions are even more difficult.

Can Cuba resist a total blockade?

Experts are divided. Some elements in favor of resistance:

✅ Historical experience from the Special Period ✅ Emerging private sector with greater capabilities than in the ’90s ✅ Diaspora remittances (estimated at $3-4 billion annually) ✅ Relations with China, Russia and other countries

Elements against:

❌ Aging infrastructure (electrical systems, power plants) ❌ Mass emigration of youth and professionals ❌ Less international support than during the Cold War ❌ Growing social discontent

Trump’s bet

The U.S. administration is betting that economic pressure will generate a collapse of the Cuban regime or at least force negotiations from a position of weakness.

However, more than 60 years of embargo suggest that the economic strangulation strategy has not achieved the government change Washington seeks.

What it has achieved is aggravating the suffering of the civilian population, something that international organizations —including the UN itself— have repeatedly denounced.

The unknown: for how long?

The key question is not whether Cuba can resist a total blockade, but at what human cost and for how long.

With the population emigrating en masse, infrastructure collapsing, and social patience running out, even the government’s most defiant rhetoric faces practical limits.

Soberón’s statement is a message of resilience, but also an implicit acknowledgment that the situation is critical and that Cuba hopes — though without saying it openly — that the international community will pressure the United States to ease the crisis.

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Sources:

• EFE via Swissinfo
• CiberCuba