Cuba on Edge: Will the Island Be Trump's Next Target After Iran?

Tension fills the streets of Cuba. Following devastating U.S.-Israeli military strikes that eliminated Iran’s supreme leader and captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, many Cubans wonder if their island will be the Trump administration’s next target.

Fear Spreads Through Havana

According to recent reports, Cuban counterintelligence agents in civilian clothes have visited Communist Party neighborhood representatives near military installations in Havana, requesting names of area residents. Local delegates confirm that evacuation plans are being drafted following the U.S. operation that captured Maduro and killed over 100 people, including 32 Cubans assigned to protect him.

“I’m afraid of a military invasion,” one neighborhood delegate told The New York Times on condition of anonymity. “The whole country feels fear.”

Divided Expectations Between Fear and Hope

But not all Cubans share the same sentiment. Giovanny Fardales, a 53-year-old translator, describes conversations spreading through all social circles. “Everybody says the same thing: ‘The Americans have to come so this ends,’” he expressed in a text message.

This division reflects the complex reality Cuba faces in 2026:

• Energy crisis: Blackouts lasting up to 20 hours daily in some regions
• Economic collapse: Widespread food and medicine shortages
• Mass exodus: Over 7% of the population has emigrated in recent years
• International pressure: Growing isolation after the fall of allies

Trump: “Cuba Is Just Going to Fall”

President Trump has suggested Cuba’s government could collapse under economic pressure rather than military force. “I think it’s just going to fall,” he declared recently, adding that the U.S. could “very well end up having a friendly takeover of Cuba.”

This “maximum pressure” strategy has already shown devastating results:

1. Record deportations: Over 5,000 Cubans deported in two presidential terms
2. CBP One elimination: 200,000 Cubans without legal entry pathways
3. CHNV program termination: Half a million migrants lost protection
4. Unprecedented cooperation: Cuba accepts criminal deportees for the first time

What Does This Mean for Cuban Migration?

Analysts warn that speculation about military intervention could trigger a new migration wave. Francisco Pichón, UN representative in Cuba, has warned of “acute humanitarian risks,” particularly for people dependent on electricity for medical treatment.

Limited Escape Routes

Cubans face increasingly restricted options:

• Nicaraguan route: Closed after new visa decree
• Commercial flights: Virtually non-existent
• Maritime crossings: 340% increase in raft attempts
• Mexico: Thousands trapped in immigration limbo

Voices from the Island

Rita García Morris, a religious leader, says many hope for change but prefer a negotiated outcome. “The people want it to be peaceful,” says a Havana musician, while historian Lillian Guerra observes widespread exhaustion: “on the island, people don’t want war.”

Miami Pushes for Action

Meanwhile, in Miami, thousands of Cuban-Americans marched through the city over the weekend celebrating the Iran action and pushing for similar intervention in Cuba. “If Trump were to take Cuba,” one activist commented, “I think we’d have to rename the county to Trump-Dade County or Rubio-Dade County.”

Frequently Asked Questions

What are the legal options for Cubans wanting to emigrate?

Virtually none. With CBP One and the CHNV program eliminated, legal pathways have disappeared. Only asylum options remain after reaching U.S. territory.

Could Cuba resist a military intervention?

Analysts believe Cuba’s military capacity has deteriorated significantly. The economic crisis has affected equipment and armed forces morale.

What role does Venezuela play in Trump’s strategy?

Maduro’s capture demonstrated Trump’s determination to act militarily against Cuba’s allies, increasing pressure on Havana.

How does this affect deportations?

Military intervention speculation could accelerate deportations as part of diplomatic pressure, while new migration waves could overwhelm the system.

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Will Cuba be next? Only time will tell, but uncertainty is already generating movements both inside and outside the island. For Cubans, every day is a gamble between hope for change and fear of the unknown.

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• Cuban Crisis 2026: Trump Escalates Maximum Pressure as Exodus Grows
• ICE Intensifies Operations Against Cubans: New Arrests Reveal Aggressive Strategy
• Historic Deportation: 170 Cubans Returned to Cuba in Precedent-Setting Flight
• Nicaragua Blocks Last Route: Cubans Trapped Without Migration Alternatives
• Cuba Accepts Criminal Deportees from US for First Time in Decades