Trump Lifts Oil Tariffs But Keeps Cuba Emergency Status

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on February 20 that eliminates additional tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) against countries supplying oil to Cuba. However, he maintains the “national emergency” status declared against the island in January.

This apparent contradiction reveals a more complex strategy: selective economic pressure while preserving legal tools for mass deportations and migration control.

The message behind the policy

“It’s a calculated move,” explains María José Espinosa, executive director of the Center for Engagement and Advocacy in the Americas (CEDA). “Trump is sending differentiated signals: conditional economic cooperation, but a firm hand on migration.”

The executive order, which ends additional tariffs under Executive Order 14380 against the Cuban government, doesn’t alter the fundamental embargo sanctions. It’s more of a tactical pause that allows negotiations while maintaining pressure.

Impact on deportations

Since February 9, Cuba has accepted criminal deportees for the first time in decades: 170 people on the first flight of the year, including those convicted of murder, rape, kidnapping, and drug trafficking.

This dramatic shift in Cuba’s position coincides with:

The national emergency declaration in January
Deportation flights suspended during January
Economic pressure from the oil embargo threatening to plunge the island into darkness

“Migration cooperation between the United States and Cuba is increasingly influenced by broader political and economic pressures,” Espinosa argues. “Cuba is negotiating from a position of limited room for maneuver.”

The reality of deportees

Trump has deported more Cubans than any other president, despite the Cuban-American community guaranteeing him a majority of votes in Florida in November 2024. During his second term, 1,668 Cubans have been deported to the island, bringing the total from his two terms to 5,053.

For many like Roxana Torres, whose husband Maikel Rojas Pérez has been detained for months at the notorious Alligator Alcatraz detention center in Florida, the fear is palpable. “I never imagined this would happen to us,” says Roxana, who for four months has stood every Sunday in front of the center demanding her husband’s release.

”Voluntary” return?

Trump’s recent comments suggest a long-term strategy: “We are talking to Cuba. We have tens of thousands of people that were forced out of there… Maybe they want to go back. They’re going to have that choice.”

This “voluntary return” rhetoric works on multiple levels:

Message to Miami: Resonates with exile sectors that prioritize restitution of confiscated properties
Pressure on Havana: Links normalization with acceptance of deportees
Migration narrative: Presents migration as a temporary phenomenon tied to political conditions

Current conditions

However, reality in Cuba complicates this narrative. Historian Luis Martínez-Fernández from the University of Central Florida notes: “I don’t think the conditions are right for Cuba to absorb a population that is already accustomed to certain things.”

With the island facing:

Constant blackouts due to fuel shortages
Critical shortage of food and public transportation
A population that has fallen to about 8 million after the historic exodus

“The last thing the Cuban regime wants is for emigrants to return in large numbers,” Martínez-Fernández concludes.

The path forward

The removal of oil tariffs may indicate that Trump seeks to avoid a total collapse of Cuba that would generate an even larger exodus. Maintaining emergency status, on the other hand, preserves the tools for deportations when necessary.

For the more than 500,000 Cubans in legal limbo in the United States, this dual strategy means continued uncertainty. Cooperation on deportations could be the price Cuba must pay for any future economic relief.

Frequently asked questions

What exactly do the eliminated tariffs mean? Trump eliminated additional tariffs under IEEPA specifically targeting countries that supply oil to Cuba, but the main embargo sanctions remain intact.

Why is Cuba now accepting criminal deportees? After decades of rejecting them, Cuba changed its position probably due to extreme economic pressure from the oil embargo and ongoing negotiations.

How many Cubans have been deported under Trump? In his two combined terms, Trump has deported 5,053 Cubans to the island, more than any previous president.

What happens to Cubans in legal proceedings? More than 500,000 Cubans remain in legal limbo in the U.S., many awaiting I-220A case resolutions and asylum applications under new restrictions.