The political relationship between Washington and Havana has reached a new level of complexity under Donald Trump’s administration. While the U.S. president reinforces his “maximum pressure” rhetoric, publicizing that “Cuba is next,” behind-the-scenes negotiations are underway to prevent an uncontrollable humanitarian crisis that could lead to a massive exodus of migrants.

This week, despite threats of additional sanctions on nations supplying oil to the island, a Russian tanker was allowed to enter Cuban waters and deliver fuel. Diplomatic sources suggest this move is part of a “life support” strategy for the island’s precarious economy, with future shipments to be decided on a “case-by-case” basis.

The “Two-Track” Approach

Current White House policy appears to be split into two clear fronts:

Public Toughness: Trump uses confrontational language to appeal to his voter base in South Florida, particularly during recent summits in Miami like FII Priority.
Risk Management: Washington is well aware that a total blackout or a collapse in the food supply in Cuba would spike irregular migration figures at the U.S. southern border.

Reactions from Congress and the Cuban Government

A group of 52 Democratic lawmakers has urged the president to end the blockade, arguing that the economic strangulation policy has failed in its political objectives and only deepened the misery of the Cuban people. For its part, the island’s government denounces what it calls an “erratic” foreign policy that keeps the population in constant uncertainty.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What does Trump mean by “Cuba is next”? It is a phrase the president uses to indicate that after his actions against other geopolitical adversaries, Cuba will be the primary focus of his regime-change strategy.

2. Why was Russian oil allowed to enter despite sanctions? It is interpreted as a measure to prevent the total energy collapse of Cuba, which could trigger a massive migrant crisis that the U.S. wishes to avoid.

3. What role does South Florida play in this policy? The Cuban-American community in Florida is a key voting bloc for Trump, which largely explains the aggressive rhetoric and high-profile economic sanctions.

4. What are Democratic lawmakers calling for? They are calling for the lifting of “maximum pressure” sanctions, claiming they have not achieved democratic reforms and instead punish Cuban civilians.

Sources: El País, La Jornada, BBC Mundo.

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