The administration of Donald Trump is carrying out a complex “two-pronged strategy” toward Cuba that seeks to force political change on the island while keeping communication channels open. According to recent reports, Washington alternates between visible economic pressure and discrete negotiations that point directly at the removal of Miguel Díaz-Canel from power.

A Pincer of Pressure and Dialogue

On one hand, the White House has intensified the energy blockade, hindering the arrival of fuel to an island already punished by systemic blackouts. Threats of possible military intervention or a direct takeover of Cuban infrastructure are part of the public rhetoric from Trump, who has gone as far as declaring that Cuba is “next” on his list of priorities after resolving tensions in the Middle East.

However, behind the scenes, the reality is more nuanced. Both Washington and Havana have acknowledged the existence of high-level contacts. These exchanges have allowed, for example, humanitarian gestures or the specific softening of sanctions, such as the recent authorization for Russian oil tankers to unload at Cuban ports under a “case-by-case” review policy.

The Objective of Regime Change

The core of these negotiations, according to sources close to the process cited by outlets such as The New York Times and El País, is to get the current leadership of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) to step aside for a transition process. The pressure is specifically focused on Miguel Díaz-Canel, whose resignation is seen by Washington as an indispensable condition for any real normalization of relations or the definitive lifting of the embargo.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1. What consists of Trump’s two-pronged strategy? It consists of applying maximum economic sanctions and public pressure while maintaining secret negotiations to broker a political transition on the island.

2. What role does the energy embargo play? The blockade on oil arrivals is currently the strongest tool of pressure, exacerbating the electrical crisis in Cuba to force the government to negotiate.

3. Are both countries acknowledging these contacts? Yes, both U.S. officials and the Havana government have admitted that there are active communication channels and bilateral dialogues.

4. What is the primary demand of the United States? The primary reported demand is the exit of Miguel Díaz-Canel from power and the beginning of deep political reforms.

Sources: The New York Times, El País, BBC News Mundo.

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